Market overview
Where the market stands today.
Regimes, momentum timing and what just changed. Your and are one tab away.
Orange indicator
BTC, ETH & SOL momentum timing on Binance daily spot data.
Market sentiment
₿
BTC · GO BIG
What flipped today
No regime flips today — the market held its trend.
Your goal
from · ≈ target
by · /mo
Tell us your goal — a target amount or a monthly income — and Meridian computes what to contribute (or the allocation level required), then turns your holdings into a buy/sell list.
Allocation level
Move from a cash-buffered book toward concentrated stocks and crypto.
historical DD reference
~% calm~% bold
Allocation
Sector exposure
Where the model is concentrated right now.
sectors
Historical comparison
researchannualized return gap
Loading corrected history…
$10k became
CAGR
Max drawdown
Meridian · level S&P 500
Overlapping 5-year windows: beat SPY · positive ( monthly starts). Non-overlapping blocks: beat SPY .
Corrected accounting and one-session delayed fills. Current-survivor universe can overstate results. Historical evidence, not a forecast; planner returns do not use this chart.
Forward shadow
frozen modelLoading forward record…
Starts after the next fresh daily portfolio computation. No history is backfilled.
Since
Level
Relative
Captured live universe: · market date · model .
Holdings
| # | Symbol | Class | Regime | Conviction | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tap any holding to open its chart with regime bands.
Re-run the plan
Goal, timeline or allocation preference changed? Walk the wizard again for a fresh recommendation and rebalance list.
Add to portfolio
New cash to invest? Here's what to buy to stay on the ~% book.
Cash
$
Deploy now
Stage / DCA
Hold cash
| Symbol | Regime | Weight | Amount | Action | Entry note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buy now = stable BULL trend at a reasonable entry. Stage ×N = extended/volatile — split into N buys to average in. Cash = book weight with no qualifying signal. Excludes taxes & costs.
Step 1 of 4
Orders are generated only when your actual holdings exceed the shared aggregate no-trade band.
Import your holdings so the plan turns into exact buy/sell orders. No account yet? Start fresh — you can add contributions later.
Orders
% aggregate drift · rebalance above %
·
Your current portfolio
Total
- Screenshot your portfolio in your broker app.
- Click Copy AI prompt, open ChatGPT / Claude / Gemini.
- Paste the prompt and attach the screenshot, send.
- Paste the JSON it returns below, click Import.
Any image-capable AI works.
No holdings yet — import a screenshot above, or switch to Manual.
You can skip this and add money later.
Imported across holdings.
Step 2 of 4
What are you aiming for?
Pick the goal that fits you — a lump sum to build, or a monthly income to live on.
To draw /month you'll need about invested by — assuming a sustainable %/yr withdrawal (the classic 4% rule).
Step 3 of 4
How will you get there?
Choose the lever you control — Meridian solves for the other.
Your allocation level
Lower levels hold more cash; higher levels concentrate more capital in stocks and crypto.
historical DD reference
~% calm~% bold
Historical close-based reference only, not a cap or forecast. The planner does not use legacy backtest CAGR.
Invest about /month to reach by .
You're already on track at this allocation level; no new contributions needed.
Recommended allocation —
Even the boldest setting won't reach this by — we'll show your options next.
Step 4 of 4
Your plan
No rebalancing needed. Your current holdings alone are on track to by , so we suggest staying put and avoiding the taxes & trading costs of a reshuffle. Switch only if you prefer our book's declared return assumption and allocation.
No rebalancing needed. Your holdings plus /mo already reach by — staying put avoids the taxes & trading costs of rebalancing.
Your current holdings fall short — rebalancing gets you there. At /mo our book reaches your goal, but keeping your holdings doesn't.
Neither path reaches this at /mo. Try one of the adjustments below.
You can reach your goal either way — compare what each path needs below.
We can't fully assess your current holdings, so we can't confirm the stay-put path — our book below reaches your goal.
To close the gap, adjust one of these
- • Invest /mo instead of (our book, base case)
- • Extend your target to at /mo
- • Raise the allocation level to the maximum; the most aggressive book reaches your goal under the declared assumptions
- • Lower your target below
Select a path to continue. We recommend rebalancing to our book. We recommend staying with your holdings.
To reach by at allocation level keeping your current holdings, invest
Range –/mo across sensitivity cases · allocation level · ~% historical DD reference~% historical max drawdown (your mix) · S&P ~%
You're on track 🎯
At allocation level , yourKeeping your current holdings, your is projected to reach by with no new contributions under the base assumption.
Need · y · /mo
Recommended allocation to reach by
~% historical DD reference, not a cap
✓ applied to your book
To close the gap (base case), do any one:
- • Invest /month (vs )
- • Extend the timeline to
- • Accept a lower monthly income target
- • Lower the target amount
Forecast by · today's dollars
Real value (after inflation & fees) vs your target, allocation level · ~% historical DD reference if you keep your current holdings.
In today's dollars after ~%/yr inflation (-yr U.S. CPI avg) and ~%/yr fees. Base uses the actual class mix and declared long-run assumptions; conservative and optimistic are transparent -25%/+25% sensitivity checks. Backtest CAGR is excluded. Taxes excluded.
Your portfolio's track record
How your actual holdings have behaved — history, not a forecast.
Analyzing your holdings' history…
Return
Volatility
annualized
Max drawdown
peak-to-trough
You
S&P 500
Window → (y) — set by your holdings' shared price history, so all three lines use the exact same dates.
Indexed to a starting balance — all three lines begin at so you're comparing growth rates, not your actual account value.
Covers % of your portfolio — excluded (no price history back to the 2020 start).
Past performance of your actual mix over y (initial weights held and allowed to drift), compared with SPY on the same dates. Not a forecast. Concentrated or recently-hot holdings can flatter this; winners often mean-revert.
Finish the earlier steps to see your plan.
✓ Keeping your holdings
Rebalance to allocation level · ~% historical DD
Orders are generated only when your actual holdings exceed the shared aggregate no-trade band.
% aggregate drift · rebalance above %
Orders
·
| Symbol | Now | Target | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| not tracked |
Because aggregate drift crossed the band, these orders move the full portfolio to target. "Not tracked" holdings sit outside our universe; selling them funds the book. Excludes taxes and trading costs.
No rebalance: aggregate drift is , within the no-trade band.
₿
BTC · GO BIG signal
deep-capitulation leveraged longBTC vs ATH
ATH · now
Daily trend (OpenLL)
EMA30/60 · ATR band
20-day breakout
reversal confirm
·
✓ armed
fires ≤
≥% below ATH → x · +% ·
historical
Arms only when BTC is deeply below its all-time high AND the daily trend flips up (OpenLL EMA30/60+ATR turns BULL, or price breaks its 20-day high). Win-rates are from a first-passage barrier study on BTC daily 2017–2026. Leverage is sized below the theoretical max so intraday wicks can't stop you out; budget funding on long holds. Not financial advice.
Market signals
Regime across the full universe under OpenLL — tap any asset for its chart.
Bull
Neutral
Bear
BTC dominance
| Asset | Price | BTC regime | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No matching assets. | |||
Showing · tap a row to open its chart with regime bands — the USD/BTC switch is inside the chart.
Research ledger
Project watchlist
One decision record per project. Reviews become due every Monday until the repository evaluation date is updated.
Watchlist unavailable
No projects tracked yet
Add a record to static/project_watchlist.json.
Backtest — interactive replay
Step through BTC history bar-by-bar with the OpenLL regime & pattern detection.
Orange — BTC, ETH & SOL timing strategy
Our momentum-timing strategy vs buy & hold, with your own start date & capital.
Signal model
Orange balance
B&H balance
Orange CAGR
B&H CAGR
Orange max DD
B&H max DD
Historical win rate
Historical win rate is the share of profitable sell events for this asset and selected model. Partial reductions count as sell events. This is backtest evidence, not a probability forecast for the current signal.
Recent trades (last 20)
| Date | Side | Price | Reason | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|